Modeled ceiling — do not exceed without re-underwriting
Resale value
$358,138
Estimated after-repair value
Repair + holding costs
$19,360
County FCV: $321,200 ·Record: Official recorder reference retained privately
Pre-Auction Flip
A · Exceptional modeled spread
Estimated debt: $96,153
Recorded loan principal
$63,741 (no credit for payments made)
Interest at an assumed 6%
Sep 17, 2025 – Dec 17, 2026
Assumed tax and insurance advances
$17,634
Assumed foreclosure fees
$10,000
Estimate from public loan records reviewed Sep 22, 2026. Actual payoff, other liens and later filings are not verified. Not a payoff quote or title clearance.
Official source retrieved Oct 1, 2026 confirms upcoming sale Dec 17, 2026.
Acquisition screen
Auction targets and potential flip profit
Each target is the highest purchase price that preserves the displayed net profit under that scenario. These are decision limits—not predictions of the auction's starting or winning bid.
conservative case
Maximum purchase price
$165,989
Potential Flip profit
$27,302
Low resale · high repairs · longer hold
target case
Maximum purchase price
$270,938
Potential Flip profit
$28,652
Base resale · base repairs · base hold
aggressive case
Maximum purchase price
$287,477
Potential Flip profit
$17,907
Base resale · low repairs · thinner margin
Estimated costs and holding time
Planning assumptions used in the purchase-target calculations. Verify each cost before bidding.
Repair reserve
$11,060
Blind-condition estimate
Hold period
3 months
estimated
Closing / recording
$2,500
estimated
Title / escrow
$2,200
estimated
Selling cost
7.0%
estimated
Cash required
$74,030
At conservative purchase target
Supplemental hold analysis · preliminary diligence
Rental and Appreciation Outlook
For planning only: not an appraisal, rent guarantee or forecast. It does not change the pre-auction flip grade.
Estimated rent for this home (monthly, rough)
$1,600–$1,950
ZIP 85224 average rent, all rentals
$1,727
HUD fair market rent, 2–4 bed
$2,000–$2,960
Area market outlook
Weakening
Data confidence
Insufficient data
Rough estimate from this home's size and local HUD rents, calibrated on 94 nearby rental listings (typically within about 10%). No comparable rentals have been collected for this home yet, so it is not used for yields.
Sources and method
area-level proxy: Zillow Observed Rent Index, smoothed asking-rent measure across the ZIP rental stock, including multifamily. Not adjusted for this home, its size, condition or bedrooms; no property-specific comparable leases or range.
The area average is never converted into a rent for this home or used for yields.
Source: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) ↗. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:a60963f429dbacf97e4371a8e4f9146322a09073d76031fc1fe477ca65183933.
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent, FY2027 · ZIP 85224
Reference only, not part of the estimate. HUD sets these for the housing voucher program at roughly the 40th percentile of recent-mover rents, including utilities, by bedroom count; effective October 1, 2026. Not a market asking rent and not adjusted for this home.
Yields are gross yield before vacancy, repairs, management, taxes, insurance, HOA, utilities, financing, and capital expenditures. Annual rent = typical monthly rent × 12, divided by a verified as-is value or a reviewed all-in cost; they are not cap rates and show only when both inputs are current.
Housing evidence expires after 90 days; last checked Sep 26, 2026.
No dated, property-bound rentability findings are available. Rentability, possession, permitted use and insurability are not established.
Still needs verification (16)
Property-specific comparable rentals and supported low/high rents require separate research.
Occupancy and possession
HOA and rental restrictions
Flood exposure
Insurance availability and cost
Zoning and permitted rental use
Condition and habitability
Permits and code compliance
A reliable current monthly rent estimate.
Property-specific rent from comparable rentals; the ZIP rent index covers all rentals, including apartments, and is not this home's rent.
A source-backed low/high monthly rent range.
Yield on as-is value requires a positive, current, verified valuation explicitly identified as as-is.
Yield on all-in cost requires a current verified review matching the existing modeled total project cost; cash/equity required is not total cost.
Bedrooms
Bathrooms
Lease terms, security deposits, vacancy, management costs, maintenance and capital expenditures before relying on a hold strategy.
Area Appreciation
Geography: ZIP 85224 — all residential (zip). Historical median sale-price changes describe the area, not this property’s appreciation.
1-year median sale-price change
-4.0%
Confidence: Low
97 → 129 sales · Jun 30, 2025 → Jun 30, 2026
3-year median sale-price change
5.8%
Confidence: Low
69 → 129 sales · Jun 30, 2023 → Jun 30, 2026
5-year median sale-price change
16.5%
Confidence: Low
134 → 129 sales · Jun 30, 2021 → Jun 30, 2026
How this is measured
Maricopa County Assessor sales affidavits for this ZIP: single-parcel single-family and condo/townhouse sales with no reject code, unadjusted median of the trailing three recorded months, same ending month compared across years. The file keeps only each parcel's latest recorded sale, so earlier windows omit homes that have resold since; 3- and 5-year changes are limited to Low confidence. Sale mix can affect medians; this is not appreciation of this specific property.
At least 20 transactions at each endpoint, comparable periods, and current observations are required. Confidence also reflects sample size and geographic specificity. Changes in the mix of homes sold may move the median.
More homes for sale: 77 listings a year ago → 82 listings nowlittle change
Homes take longer to sell: 46 days a year ago → 65 days nowbad for prices
More sellers are cutting prices: 27% of listings a year ago → 31% of listings nowbad for prices
How this is decided
Positive or Weakening needs at least three signals covering supply and demand, with two-thirds pointing the same way and none against; otherwise it is Flat. This is a screen of recent conditions, not a price forecast.
Aerial address reference