Modeled ceiling — do not exceed without re-underwriting
Resale value
$296,367
Estimated after-repair value
Repair + holding costs
$29,706
County FCV: $265,800 ·Record: Official recorder reference retained privately
Pre-Auction Flip
Needs current debt estimate
Recorded loan documents have not been modeled.
Estimate from public loan records. Actual payoff, other liens and later filings are not verified. Not a payoff quote or title clearance.
Official source retrieved Oct 1, 2026 confirms upcoming sale Nov 24, 2026.
Acquisition screen
Auction targets and potential flip profit
Each target is the highest purchase price that preserves the displayed net profit under that scenario. These are decision limits—not predictions of the auction's starting or winning bid.
conservative case
Maximum purchase price
$97,653
Potential Flip profit
$25,000
Low resale · high repairs · longer hold
target case
Maximum purchase price
$210,723
Potential Flip profit
$23,710
Base resale · base repairs · base hold
aggressive case
Maximum purchase price
$230,519
Potential Flip profit
$14,818
Base resale · low repairs · thinner margin
Estimated costs and holding time
Planning assumptions used in the purchase-target calculations. Verify each cost before bidding.
Repair reserve
$20,140
Blind-condition estimate
Hold period
3 months
estimated
Closing / recording
$2,500
estimated
Title / escrow
$2,200
estimated
Selling cost
7.0%
estimated
Cash required
$63,293
At conservative purchase target
Supplemental hold analysis · preliminary diligence
Rental and Appreciation Outlook
For planning only: not an appraisal, rent guarantee or forecast. It does not change the pre-auction flip grade.
Estimated rent for this home (monthly, rough)
$2,150–$2,650
ZIP 85009 average rent, all rentals
$1,253
HUD fair market rent, 2–4 bed
$1,380–$2,120
Area market outlook
Positive
Data confidence
Insufficient data
Rough estimate from this home's size and local HUD rents, calibrated on 94 nearby rental listings (typically within about 10%). No comparable rentals have been collected for this home yet, so it is not used for yields.
Sources and method
area-level proxy: Zillow Observed Rent Index, smoothed asking-rent measure across the ZIP rental stock, including multifamily. Not adjusted for this home, its size, condition or bedrooms; no property-specific comparable leases or range.
The area average is never converted into a rent for this home or used for yields.
Source: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) ↗. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:a60963f429dbacf97e4371a8e4f9146322a09073d76031fc1fe477ca65183933.
HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent, FY2027 · ZIP 85009
Reference only, not part of the estimate. HUD sets these for the housing voucher program at roughly the 40th percentile of recent-mover rents, including utilities, by bedroom count; effective October 1, 2026. Not a market asking rent and not adjusted for this home.
Yields are gross yield before vacancy, repairs, management, taxes, insurance, HOA, utilities, financing, and capital expenditures. Annual rent = typical monthly rent × 12, divided by a verified as-is value or a reviewed all-in cost; they are not cap rates and show only when both inputs are current.
Housing evidence expires after 90 days; last checked Sep 26, 2026.
No dated, property-bound rentability findings are available. Rentability, possession, permitted use and insurability are not established.
Still needs verification (16)
Property-specific comparable rentals and supported low/high rents require separate research.
Occupancy and possession
HOA and rental restrictions
Flood exposure
Insurance availability and cost
Zoning and permitted rental use
Condition and habitability
Permits and code compliance
A reliable current monthly rent estimate.
Property-specific rent from comparable rentals; the ZIP rent index covers all rentals, including apartments, and is not this home's rent.
A source-backed low/high monthly rent range.
Yield on as-is value requires a positive, current, verified valuation explicitly identified as as-is.
Yield on all-in cost requires a current verified review matching the existing modeled total project cost; cash/equity required is not total cost.
Bedrooms
Bathrooms
Lease terms, security deposits, vacancy, management costs, maintenance and capital expenditures before relying on a hold strategy.
Area Appreciation
Geography: ZIP 85009 — all residential (zip). Historical median sale-price changes describe the area, not this property’s appreciation.
1-year median sale-price change
-1.3%
Confidence: Low
55 → 40 sales · Jun 30, 2025 → Jun 30, 2026
3-year median sale-price change
3.6%
Confidence: Low
38 → 40 sales · Jun 30, 2023 → Jun 30, 2026
5-year median sale-price change
20.5%
Confidence: Low
88 → 40 sales · Jun 30, 2021 → Jun 30, 2026
How this is measured
Maricopa County Assessor sales affidavits for this ZIP: single-parcel single-family and condo/townhouse sales with no reject code, unadjusted median of the trailing three recorded months, same ending month compared across years. The file keeps only each parcel's latest recorded sale, so earlier windows omit homes that have resold since; 3- and 5-year changes are limited to Low confidence. Sale mix can affect medians; this is not appreciation of this specific property.
At least 20 transactions at each endpoint, comparable periods, and current observations are required. Confidence also reflects sample size and geographic specificity. Changes in the mix of homes sold may move the median.
Fewer homes for sale: 60 listings a year ago → 50 listings nowgood for prices
Homes sell faster: 71 days a year ago → 63 days nowgood for prices
Fewer sellers are cutting prices: 39% of listings a year ago → 32% of listings nowgood for prices
How this is decided
Positive or Weakening needs at least three signals covering supply and demand, with two-thirds pointing the same way and none against; otherwise it is Flat. This is a screen of recent conditions, not a price forecast.
Aerial address reference