Modeled ceiling — do not exceed without re-underwriting
Resale value
$364,271
Estimated after-repair value
Repair + holding costs
$26,525
County FCV: $326,700 ·Record: Official recorder reference retained privately
Pre-Auction Flip
C · Moderate modeled spread
Estimated debt: $277,178
Recorded loan principal
$232,000 (no credit for payments made)
Interest at an assumed 6%
Aug 13, 2025 – Nov 12, 2026
Assumed tax and insurance advances
$17,788
Assumed foreclosure fees
$10,000
Estimate from public loan records reviewed Sep 22, 2026. Actual payoff, other liens and later filings are not verified. Not a payoff quote or title clearance.
Official source retrieved Oct 1, 2026 confirms upcoming sale Nov 12, 2026.
Acquisition screen
Auction targets and potential flip profit
Each target is the highest purchase price that preserves the displayed net profit under that scenario. These are decision limits—not predictions of the auction's starting or winning bid.
conservative case
Maximum purchase price
$149,238
Potential Flip profit
$27,770
Low resale · high repairs · longer hold
target case
Maximum purchase price
$268,995
Potential Flip profit
$29,143
Base resale · base repairs · base hold
aggressive case
Maximum purchase price
$289,171
Potential Flip profit
$18,214
Base resale · low repairs · thinner margin
Estimated costs and holding time
Planning assumptions used in the purchase-target calculations. Verify each cost before bidding.
Repair reserve
$17,280
Blind-condition estimate
Hold period
3 months
estimated
Closing / recording
$2,500
estimated
Title / escrow
$2,200
estimated
Selling cost
7.0%
estimated
Cash required
$76,226
At conservative purchase target
Supplemental hold analysis · preliminary diligence
Rental and Appreciation Outlook
For planning only: not an appraisal, rent guarantee or forecast. It does not change the pre-auction flip grade.
Estimated rent for this home (monthly)
$2,299 ($1,950–$2,675)
HUD fair market rent, 2–4 bed
$1,510–$2,230
Annual rent (typical)
$27,588
Area market outlook
Flat
Data confidence
Low
Sources and method
11 distinct house rental listings from RentCast (asking rents, not signed leases), last seen within 30 days, within 3 miles of this address and within 25% of its 1,728 sq ft. Excluded: other property types, prices outside 0.8–2.0× the ZIP 85201 Zillow rent index, prices outside 70–150% of the other nearby comparables, and repeat listings of the same address (dropped entirely when their prices conflict). Typical = median of these listings; low/high = observed range; RentCast's modeled estimate is not used. Bedrooms, condition and amenities are not adjusted.
Comparable rentals (11)
rentcast:1711-W-Auburn-St,-Mesa,-AZ-85201: $1,950/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 1,522 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:14ed4bb9b75da7020965727d3511c437cbad4373f4906b19629a627b8029b17d.
rentcast:1520-W-Bentley-St,-Mesa,-AZ-85201: $2,630/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 1,848 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:14ed4bb9b75da7020965727d3511c437cbad4373f4906b19629a627b8029b17d.
rentcast:1506-W-2nd-St,-Mesa,-AZ-85201: $2,250/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 1,310 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:14ed4bb9b75da7020965727d3511c437cbad4373f4906b19629a627b8029b17d.
rentcast:544-N-Alma-School-Rd,-Mesa,-AZ-85201: $2,600/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 1,592 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:14ed4bb9b75da7020965727d3511c437cbad4373f4906b19629a627b8029b17d.
rentcast:555-N-Elm,-Mesa,-AZ-85201: $2,675/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,150 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:14ed4bb9b75da7020965727d3511c437cbad4373f4906b19629a627b8029b17d.
rentcast:1508-W-Capri-Ave,-Mesa,-AZ-85202: $2,399/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,157 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:14ed4bb9b75da7020965727d3511c437cbad4373f4906b19629a627b8029b17d.
rentcast:730-N-Stewart,-Mesa,-AZ-85201: $2,099/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 1,750 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:14ed4bb9b75da7020965727d3511c437cbad4373f4906b19629a627b8029b17d.
rentcast:1140-W-7th-St,-Mesa,-AZ-85201: $2,195/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 1,589 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:14ed4bb9b75da7020965727d3511c437cbad4373f4906b19629a627b8029b17d.
rentcast:1347-W-7th-Dr,-Mesa,-AZ-85202: $2,135/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 1,630 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:14ed4bb9b75da7020965727d3511c437cbad4373f4906b19629a627b8029b17d.
rentcast:2402-E-5th-St,-Unit-1562,-Tempe,-AZ-85288: $2,599/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 1,675 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:14ed4bb9b75da7020965727d3511c437cbad4373f4906b19629a627b8029b17d.
rentcast:2402-E-5th-St,-Unit-1497,-Tempe,-AZ-85288: $2,299/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 1,380 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:14ed4bb9b75da7020965727d3511c437cbad4373f4906b19629a627b8029b17d.
Reference only, not part of the estimate. HUD sets these for the housing voucher program at roughly the 40th percentile of recent-mover rents, including utilities, by bedroom count; effective October 1, 2026. Not a market asking rent and not adjusted for this home.
Yields are gross yield before vacancy, repairs, management, taxes, insurance, HOA, utilities, financing, and capital expenditures. Annual rent = typical monthly rent × 12, divided by a verified as-is value or a reviewed all-in cost; they are not cap rates and show only when both inputs are current.
Housing evidence expires after 90 days; last checked Sep 27, 2026.
No dated, property-bound rentability findings are available. Rentability, possession, permitted use and insurability are not established.
Existing documented property issues
Documented finding: Mesa reports COD26-00570 — Citation Issued (weeds trailers and outside storage). Confirm compliance, fines and abatement charges. Dataset updated 2026-09-17; this is not a current building-safety, demolition or financial clearance.
These findings do not establish the presence or absence of rental restrictions or permitted use.
Still needs verification (14)
Signed-lease rents are not available; comparables are asking rents from listings.
ZIP-level market data is flagged by the provider or missing; the market trend uses Maricopa County data.
Occupancy and possession
HOA and rental restrictions
Flood exposure
Insurance availability and cost
Zoning and permitted rental use
Condition and habitability
Permits and code compliance
Yield on as-is value requires a positive, current, verified valuation explicitly identified as as-is.
Yield on all-in cost requires a current verified review matching the existing modeled total project cost; cash/equity required is not total cost.
Bedrooms
Bathrooms
Lease terms, security deposits, vacancy, management costs, maintenance and capital expenditures before relying on a hold strategy.
Area Appreciation
Geography: ZIP 85201 — all residential (zip). Historical median sale-price changes describe the area, not this property’s appreciation.
1-year median sale-price change
-9.4%
Confidence: Low
93 → 93 sales · Jun 30, 2025 → Jun 30, 2026
3-year median sale-price change
4.4%
Confidence: Low
65 → 93 sales · Jun 30, 2023 → Jun 30, 2026
5-year median sale-price change
7.2%
Confidence: Low
103 → 93 sales · Jun 30, 2021 → Jun 30, 2026
How this is measured
Maricopa County Assessor sales affidavits for this ZIP: single-parcel single-family and condo/townhouse sales with no reject code, unadjusted median of the trailing three recorded months, same ending month compared across years. The file keeps only each parcel's latest recorded sale, so earlier windows omit homes that have resold since; 3- and 5-year changes are limited to Low confidence. Sale mix can affect medians; this is not appreciation of this specific property.
At least 20 transactions at each endpoint, comparable periods, and current observations are required. Confidence also reflects sample size and geographic specificity. Changes in the mix of homes sold may move the median.
How the local market changed over the past year (countywide figures where the ZIP data is unreliable):
More homes for sale: 14,317 listings a year ago → 15,125 listings nowlittle change
Homes sell faster: 71 days a year ago → 67 days nowlittle change
Fewer sellers are cutting prices: 29% of listings a year ago → 28% of listings nowlittle change
How this is decided
Positive or Weakening needs at least three signals covering supply and demand, with two-thirds pointing the same way and none against; otherwise it is Flat. This is a screen of recent conditions, not a price forecast.
Rent 10% below typical; all other inputs unchanged. This is a stress case, not a forecast.
Monthly rent at −10%
$2,069
Annual gross rent: typical → −10%
$27,588 → $24,829
Gross yield on as-is value: typical → −10%
Unavailable → Unavailable
Gross yield on all-in cost: typical → −10%
Unavailable → Unavailable
Both are gross yield before vacancy, repairs, management, taxes, insurance, HOA, utilities, financing, and capital expenditures. Rent and denominator sources/dates are shown above.
Three-month longer hold
Hold-cost sensitivity cannot be calculated. Missing current carrying-cost inputs: monthlyInsurance, monthlyUtilities, monthlyTaxes, monthlyHoa, dated hold-period assumption. Financing interest, maintenance and unexpected possession costs require separate review.
Aerial address reference