Modeled ceiling — do not exceed without re-underwriting
Resale value
$510,000
Estimated after-repair value
Repair + holding costs
$34,956
County FCV: $499,600 ·Record: Official recorder reference retained privately
Pre-Auction Flip
A · Exceptional modeled spread
Estimated debt: $275,290
Recorded loan principal
$225,499 (no credit for payments made)
Interest at an assumed 6%
Aug 13, 2025 – Nov 19, 2026
Assumed tax and insurance advances
$22,629
Assumed foreclosure fees
$10,000
Estimate from public loan records reviewed Sep 22, 2026. Actual payoff, other liens and later filings are not verified. Not a payoff quote or title clearance.
Official source retrieved Oct 1, 2026 confirms upcoming sale Nov 19, 2026.
Acquisition screen
Auction targets and potential flip profit
Each target is the highest purchase price that preserves the displayed net profit under that scenario. These are decision limits—not predictions of the auction's starting or winning bid.
conservative case
Maximum purchase price
$279,146
Potential Flip profit
$47,500
Low resale · high repairs · longer hold
target case
Maximum purchase price
$378,869
Potential Flip profit
$40,801
Base resale · base repairs · base hold
aggressive case
Maximum purchase price
$407,203
Potential Flip profit
$25,500
Base resale · low repairs · thinner margin
Estimated costs and holding time
Planning assumptions used in the purchase-target calculations. Verify each cost before bidding.
Repair reserve
$24,350
Blind-condition estimate
Hold period
3 months
estimated
Closing / recording
$2,500
estimated
Title / escrow
$2,200
estimated
Selling cost
7.0%
estimated
Cash required
$125,445
At conservative purchase target
Resale evidence
3 recent recorded comparable sales
Only assessor-recorded sales from the last 12 months are shown. No condition adjustment has been made.
4902 S Carmine
$475,000
Sale date
7/2026
Year built
2,008
Living area
2,435 sq ft
Price / sq ft
$195
11121 E Sombra Ave
$560,000
Sale date
5/2026
Year built
2,007
Living area
2,435 sq ft
Price / sq ft
$230
11106 E Serafina Ave
$510,000
Sale date
3/2026
Year built
2,007
Living area
2,435 sq ft
Price / sq ft
$209
Comparable address
Sale date
Price
Sq ft
Year built
Price / sq ft
4902 S Carmine
7/2026
$475,000
2,435
2,008
$195
11121 E Sombra Ave
5/2026
$560,000
2,435
2,007
$230
11106 E Serafina Ave
3/2026
$510,000
2,435
2,007
$209
Supplemental hold analysis · preliminary diligence
Rental and Appreciation Outlook
For planning only: not an appraisal, rent guarantee or forecast. It does not change the pre-auction flip grade.
Estimated rent for this home (monthly)
$2,850 ($2,175–$3,995)
HUD fair market rent, 2–4 bed
$2,240–$3,280
Annual rent (typical)
$34,200
Area market outlook
Flat
Data confidence
Low
Sources and method
23 distinct house rental listings from RentCast (asking rents, not signed leases), last seen within 30 days, within 3 miles of this address and within 25% of its 2,435 sq ft. Excluded: other property types, prices outside 0.8–2.0× the ZIP 85212 Zillow rent index, prices outside 70–150% of the other nearby comparables, and repeat listings of the same address (dropped entirely when their prices conflict). Typical = median of these listings; low/high = observed range; RentCast's modeled estimate is not used. Bedrooms, condition and amenities are not adjusted.
Comparable rentals (23)
rentcast:4762-S-Grenoble-Cir,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $3,090/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,454 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:4447-S-Antonio-Cir,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $2,495/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,208 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:4857-S-Adelle,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $2,600/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,896 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:2760-W-Stradling-Ave,-Apache-Junction,-AZ-85120: $2,895/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,492 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:10818-E-Telsa-Ave,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $3,695/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,743 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:5735-S-Parkwood,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $2,995/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,358 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:2129-W-Spaulding-Ave,-Apache-Junction,-AZ-85120: $2,795/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,262 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:10104-E-Gamma-Ave,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $3,200/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,518 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:11254-E-Utah-Ave,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $2,750/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,613 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:5220-S-Hadron,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $2,950/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,468 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:3629-S-Adelle-Cir,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $2,500/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,385 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:10115-E-Thunderbolt-Ave,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $3,500/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,786 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:9943-E-Tumeric-Ave,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $3,995/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,556 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:5731-S-Labelle-Ave,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $2,750/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,550 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:5221-S-Excimer,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $3,100/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,429 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:4910-S-Tune,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $2,640/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,589 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:9644-E-Thatcher-Ave,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $2,795/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,554 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:9701-E-Spiral-Ave,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $3,000/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,533 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:9923-E-Tillman-Ave,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $2,545/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,248 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:9607-E-Solina-Ave,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $3,099/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,703 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:10264-S-Bickwell-Trl,-Apache-Junction,-AZ-85120: $2,175/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,349 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:9908-E-Texas-Ave,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $2,750/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,248 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
rentcast:9553-E-Theia-Dr,-Mesa,-AZ-85212: $2,850/month · Asking rent, not a signed lease · house · 2,405 sq ft
Source: RentCast rental listing. As of ; checked Sep 26, 2026 · Receipt sha256:9cf73dcf17f1df2fbbb67a55acd721975cf3dd8c87130a9c3246477c88ad5fd8.
Reference only, not part of the estimate. HUD sets these for the housing voucher program at roughly the 40th percentile of recent-mover rents, including utilities, by bedroom count; effective October 1, 2026. Not a market asking rent and not adjusted for this home.
Yields are gross yield before vacancy, repairs, management, taxes, insurance, HOA, utilities, financing, and capital expenditures. Annual rent = typical monthly rent × 12, divided by a verified as-is value or a reviewed all-in cost; they are not cap rates and show only when both inputs are current.
Housing evidence expires after 90 days; last checked Sep 26, 2026.
No dated, property-bound rentability findings are available. Rentability, possession, permitted use and insurability are not established.
Still needs verification (13)
Signed-lease rents are not available; comparables are asking rents from listings.
Occupancy and possession
HOA and rental restrictions
Flood exposure
Insurance availability and cost
Zoning and permitted rental use
Condition and habitability
Permits and code compliance
Yield on as-is value requires a positive, current, verified valuation explicitly identified as as-is.
Yield on all-in cost requires a current verified review matching the existing modeled total project cost; cash/equity required is not total cost.
Bedrooms
Bathrooms
Lease terms, security deposits, vacancy, management costs, maintenance and capital expenditures before relying on a hold strategy.
Area Appreciation
Geography: ZIP 85212 — all residential (zip). Historical median sale-price changes describe the area, not this property’s appreciation.
1-year median sale-price change
-4.1%
Confidence: Low
339 → 250 sales · Jun 30, 2025 → Jun 30, 2026
3-year median sale-price change
-0.6%
Confidence: Low
305 → 250 sales · Jun 30, 2023 → Jun 30, 2026
5-year median sale-price change
7.4%
Confidence: Low
345 → 250 sales · Jun 30, 2021 → Jun 30, 2026
How this is measured
Maricopa County Assessor sales affidavits for this ZIP: single-parcel single-family and condo/townhouse sales with no reject code, unadjusted median of the trailing three recorded months, same ending month compared across years. The file keeps only each parcel's latest recorded sale, so earlier windows omit homes that have resold since; 3- and 5-year changes are limited to Low confidence. Sale mix can affect medians; this is not appreciation of this specific property.
At least 20 transactions at each endpoint, comparable periods, and current observations are required. Confidence also reflects sample size and geographic specificity. Changes in the mix of homes sold may move the median.
More homes for sale: 224 listings a year ago → 236 listings nowlittle change
Homes take longer to sell: 51 days a year ago → 59 days nowbad for prices
Fewer sellers are cutting prices: 38% of listings a year ago → 35% of listings nowlittle change
How this is decided
Positive or Weakening needs at least three signals covering supply and demand, with two-thirds pointing the same way and none against; otherwise it is Flat. This is a screen of recent conditions, not a price forecast.
Rent 10% below typical; all other inputs unchanged. This is a stress case, not a forecast.
Monthly rent at −10%
$2,565
Annual gross rent: typical → −10%
$34,200 → $30,780
Gross yield on as-is value: typical → −10%
Unavailable → Unavailable
Gross yield on all-in cost: typical → −10%
Unavailable → Unavailable
Both are gross yield before vacancy, repairs, management, taxes, insurance, HOA, utilities, financing, and capital expenditures. Rent and denominator sources/dates are shown above.
Three-month longer hold
Hold-cost sensitivity cannot be calculated. Missing current carrying-cost inputs: monthlyInsurance, monthlyUtilities, monthlyTaxes, monthlyHoa, dated hold-period assumption. Financing interest, maintenance and unexpected possession costs require separate review.
Aerial address reference